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AI model of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts points to a blow-up of rain (in purple, extreme right-hand corner) over Andaman Sea in next 10 days, signalling formation of a low-pressure area.
| Photo Credit:
www.meteologix.com/in
The latest deep western disturbance lay spreadeagled across the international border on Monday in the form of a cyclonic circulation over central Pakistan, adjoining Punjab and north-west Rajasthan. It ensured no heat wave conditions existed or were forecast for any part of India, except hot and humid weather over parts of East India.
The westerly system is flanked by a bevy of helpful circulations over north-east Rajasthan; south Pakistan; and adjoining south-west Rajasthan. Elongated weather-making troughs linked east Rajasthan with north Bangladesh across Madhya Pradesh, as well as south-east Uttar Pradesh with Jharkhand, into which an existing circulation over north-west Madhya Pradesh merged.
Dramatic over West India
Its impact will be dramatic over baked West India, with scattered to moderate to fairly widespread rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning and gust winds sweeping Gujarat, Konkan and Goa; Madhya Maharashtra; and Marathwada for next five days. Similar rough weather may pan out across the seasonally vulnerable North-East India; East and Central India; and South Peninsula.
Maximum (day) temperatures are expected to fall by 3-5℃ over West India for next 4-5 days, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. No significant change in temperatures is forecast for North-West India and Central India, but they may rise by 2-3℃ subsequently. Over East India, day temperatures may not change drastically for next two days, but may look up later.
Atmospheric constellation
A third trough draped itself in usual north-south direction from south-east Madhya Pradesh to south interior Karnataka across Marathwada; Telangana; and north interior Karnataka. Cyclonic circulations hung over south Tamil Nadu, and towards east, over north-east Assam. They completed atmospheric constellation of weather-making systems spread out across the country.
Low-pressure area likely
At least one global forecaster suspected western disturbances will be active into second week of May and may retreat to farther north of the country later, as extreme south prepares to receive south-west monsoon. A low-pressure area may form over Andaman Sea soon, and propel towards Myanmar. Myanmar national forecaster has already endorsed this outlook
Clearing monsoon highway
Monsoon may not be able to prosper beyond Kerala and the West Coast so long as western disturbances remain active. The current disturbance will bring heavy weather to the hills and plains of North-West India for the next seven days. It will precipitate isolated heavy rainfall, thunder squalls, high winds, thunderstorms, hailstorms, dust storms and lightning across the region.
Published on May 5, 2025
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