[ad_1]
The south-west monsoon is expected to advance into south Andaman Sea, some parts of south-east Bay of Bengal and Nicobar Islands in the next seven days (around May 13), earlier by at least as many days, according to a terse statement put out by India Meteorological Department (IMD) around noon.
Businessline had hinted at this prospect in a report last night and published this morning.
First pit-stop
Normally, the the four-month-long monsoon advances into the extreme south and south-east parts of the Bay, its first-pit stop ahead of arrival over Sri Lanka and south-west coast of India (Kerala) in the subsequent fortnight. Early arrival over the Bay however need not necessarily translate into an early onset over Kerala.
At least one global forecaster suspected western disturbances will be active over North-West India into second week of May and may retreat to farther north of the country later, even as extreme south (initially parts of Bay of Bengal) prepares to receive south-west monsoon. Western disturbances have to die out for monsoon to make an orderly progress over mainland India.
Myanmar onset timeline
Some models indicated a low-pressure area may form over Andaman Sea, and propel towards Myanmar. Myanmar national forecaster has endorsed this outlook. The monsoon reaches Myanmar normally around May 18, ahead of Andaman Sea. The Myanmar forecaster has said this year, it may reach southern Myanmar slightly ahead of time during May 16-20; the delta region during May 21-25; central Myanmar during May 26-31; and northern Myanmar during June 1-5.
Numerical predictions by the IMD shows south-westerly winds picking up strength over the south and eastern parts of Bay from May 13, but not necessarily formation of a ‘low.’ Impact from current western disturbance over North-West India is expected to stay active for ongoing week, foreclosing onset prospects during the period.
Published on May 6, 2025
[ad_2]
Source link
