How John Swinney revived the SNP in Scotland

Good afternoon, and welcome to a dispatch on the state of Britain from Scotland, where the ruling Scottish National party has outlined its policy prospectus with a year to go until pivotal Holyrood parliamentary elections.

It’s also a year since veteran SNP powerbroker John Swinney took over as first minister from Humza Yousaf.

Yousaf, determined to free his government from the left-wing shackles of coalition with the Scottish Greens, frogmarched his partners out of government — only to precipitate the end of his 14-month tenure.

The inheritance for Swinney is the ability to flood the centre ground of Scottish politics, rolling back progressive action to concentrate on the “people’s priorities”.

This week’s programme for government, Holyrood’s answer to the King’s speech at Westminster, laid out a slimmed-down diet of measures around the economy, healthcare and climate action. With the polls having swung in his favour, Swinney is pursuing a manageable programme in the hope of maximising delivery.

Critics have decried its minimalist ambition. Oxfam Scotland, for example, accused Scottish ministers of “treading water while the storms of poverty, inequality and the climate crisis rage”.  

The government has, indeed, watered down or deferred a slew of policies previously promoted by the Greens, including tough rent controls, greener home heating, limits on car use and ending conversion therapy.

Abolishing peak rail fares — a pilot abandoned last year because of budgetary pressures — was reinstated this week in a headline-grabbing U-turn — a rare Green policy that has not been sacrificed on the altar of Swinney’s centrist pivot.

That shift has turned around the first minister’s primary mission, ending child poverty and improving public services by generating economic growth.

Last year’s bumper Budget from Rachel Reeves, a record settlement of almost £5bn more over two years for Scotland, means Swinney can channel extra money into those core priorities.

The programme for government placed the NHS at the heart of its pitch to voters, aware that after 18 years in power, the SNP’s record is particularly wobbly on healthcare.

Swinney will hope that 100,000 extra GP appointments will address the “8am rush” endured by many trying to see their doctor on any given day — even though medics have pointed out that with 650,000 such interactions a week, the promised uplift is insufficient.

Swinney acknowledges access to the NHS is a “fundamental issue”.

“People want to know they can get access when required,” he told reporters this week. “That’s about how people feel, their legitimate expectations and I need to address them.”

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, a former NHS dentist, relishes a fight on healthcare outcomes, saying Swinney has “no plan to fix the SNP-created crisis in our NHS”.

But Swinney, say his supporters, just has to zero in on Labour’s unpopular policies, from means testing the winter fuel payment to the keeping of the two-child benefit cap, both of which he aims to neutralise north of the border in the last year of this parliament.

He argues that Labour could have pursued a different approach to plug the “black hole” left by the Conservatives. Higher earners in Scotland, for example, pay more income tax than their peers in the rest of the UK.

Swinney is proud that those with the “broadest shoulders” contribute to unique redistributive measures, such as the Scottish child payment of £27.15 a week for those in need, but he has indicated no further income tax divergence for fear of stymying economic growth.  

For now, his approach is working for a party that seemed on the brink of wipeout at last year’s general election, when the SNP lost two-thirds of its Westminster seats. Voters seem to have warmed to Swinney’s sober professionalism — half bank manager, half church minister.

The latest polling, by Survation for consultancy True North, predicts a comfortable victory for the SNP, with Reform UK now “a serious competitor” for the position of the main opposition in Holyrood, according to polling guru Sir John Curtice.

His analysis of Survation’s polling suggests the SNP would hold 58 seats in next year’s Holyrood election, followed by Reform UK on 21, Labour on 18, the Conservatives on 13, the Liberal Democrats on 10 and 8 for the Greens.

“Sarwar continues to struggle to catch a break — with the woes of his party at a UK level reflecting on his support in Scotland — and Reform UK nibbling away at enough of his vote share to prove a problem for him,” said Fergus Mutch, managing partner of True North.

The rise of Reform UK in Scotland has splintered the unionist vote, simplifying the electoral arithmetic for the SNP to claim a third successive decade in power.

Swinney has pitched himself as the only UK leader willing to take on Reform UK and its leader Nigel Farage, whom he describes as the “antithesis of kindness”.

When Swinney unveiled his roster of SNP candidates for next year’s polls earlier this week, he accused Labour of failing to stand up to Farage by dancing to his tune on immigration.

“Only the SNP will confront Farage and defeat Farage,” he said, garnering the most rapturous applause of the event.

The Scottish Tory leader, Russell Findlay, says an SNP victory next May would mean Scotland is “divided by nationalism”.

Swinney has not outlined a plan to deliver a second independence referendum he says would be warranted by the nationalist majority at Holyrood implied in recent polling. But his steady-as-it-goes manner is building impetus towards that goal.

“There are only two parties with momentum right now,” said one nationalist official. “It’s us and Reform.”

Britain in numbers

Scottish ministers boast that the country has delivered more affordable housing than England and Wales, but the government is still not on track to fulfil its 2021 pledge to build 110,000 affordable homes by 2032.

The housing crisis undermines two pillars of Swinney’s vision — ending child poverty and forging economic growth. A record number of Scottish households are in temporary accommodation, including more than 10,000 children.

Shelter Scotland, a charity, has called for more from the government. “All we have is a programme for homelessness,” said Alison Watson, director.

This week’s chart illustrates the challenge for Swinney in kick-starting housebuilding that has tailed off since the post-Covid recovery peak of 2022.

The delivery of new homes dropped off last year, with completions down 7 per cent and starts declining by 9 per cent. The number of affordable units fell 18 per cent to 8,180, but approvals and starts were both up 4 per cent.

This year’s budget has restored spending on affordable housing to £768mn, reversing a £200mn cut to the 2024-25 budget.

But the real battle for more homes can be found in controversial legislation and the clogged planning system.

Plans for permanent rent controls legislation in Scotland are being modified to encourage more private sector investment. Swinney’s programme for government also placed planning reform at the centre, including hiring more planners and parachuting capacity into struggling local authorities.  

He will hope reforms, rather than just more cash, can turn the dial on a sector floundering ahead of the May 2026 elections.

The State of Britain is edited by Gordon Smith. Premium subscribers can sign up here to have it delivered straight to their inbox every Thursday afternoon. Or you can take out a Premium subscription here. Read earlier editions of the newsletter here.