Hardline interior minister Bruno Retailleau has won a contest to lead France’s conservative Les Républicains party, putting him in pole position to be their presidential candidate in 2027.
The vote has begun to clarify the field of candidates seeking to replace President Emmanuel Macron, who is nearing the end of his second and last term at the Élysée Palace.
Even though far right leader Marine Le Pen has been barred from standing because of an embezzlement conviction that is under appeal, opinion polls show that she or her probable stand-in Jordan Bardella are set to win the first round vote and make it into the run-off.
Other leading contenders include centrist former prime minister Édouard Philippe and far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
“This is an important moment since the pieces are falling into place for 2027,” said political scientist Bruno Cautrès from Sciences Po university. “Retailleau has earned himself a seat at the table to either run for president for the LR or throw his weight behind Philippe if he is better placed.”
A recent Ifop poll credited Retailleau with 11 per cent in a hypothetical first round in 2027, behind Philippe on 21 per cent and Le Pen on 34 per cent.
Le Pen will be replaced by Bardella if an appeals court upholds a five-year ban from running for office that was part of her sentence in April for embezzling EU funds. She has maintained her innocence.
Retailleau had been a veteran, little-known senator for decades, and has enjoyed a big surge in popularity since becoming interior minister last summer. He has become one of the most prominent members of the current minority government that took shape last year in an alliance between the LR and Macron’s centrist group.
As minister, he has proposed harsher measures to fight illegal migration and made a renewed push to curb rampant drug trafficking — all under his slogan that France needs a return to “authority, authority, and authority”.
Almost three-quarters of party members backed Retailleau over current party president and lawmaker Laurent Wauquiez, who also had presidential ambitions. It was a much larger win than expected.
“I will be the main architect of our victory — at least, I certainly hope so — in 2027,” Retailleau said on Monday, without confirming he will run for president.
Cautrès said Retailleau’s strength on domestic security and immigration meant he could compete with the RN, while positioning himself as a more serious alternative to the far right that has never governed.
“The LR and RN are practically indistinguishable on security and immigration, but they are far apart on economic issues and how to repair public finances,” he added.
On a still fragmented left, the Socialist party is also holding its party congress in June. The contest pits Olivier Faure, an MP who has been the party leader since 2018, against challenger Nicolas Mayer-Rossignol, the mayor of Rouen. The two are divided over the strategy to adopt in 2027, notably whether to continue with electoral pacts with Melenchon’s far left.
Mayer-Rossignol said they wanted “a new PS” that could win back working-class voters that now vote RN en masse. He also wants the PS to break free of Melenchon’s La France Insoumise party (France Unbowed) that has dominated the left for years.
“This is very important for 2027 since this is the last chance we have to reorient the moderate French left to get clarity on key issues, such as being pro-Europe and defending republican values.”
Allies of Faure maintain they do not want to be linked to LFI any more, and criticise Mayer-Rossignol for glossing over disagreements on how to select a presidential candidate.
There are at least two potential candidates seeking to represent the centre left, who are not part of either camp in the PS: former president François Hollande and European MP Raphael Glucksmann. After doing well in last year’s European elections, Glucksmann still has his own small party.
Both the LR and the PS were once the main governing parties of France, and were largely demolished by the arrival of Macron to the Elysée in 2017. Their weakness led the political landscape of France to be carved into three nearly equal blocs as they were largely supplanted by the more radical left and right parties.
“The LR has regained a bit of health in the past year, and PS is still in convalescence,” said Cautrès.
