Nigel Farage can have a big impact on British government without becoming prime minister (“How far can Reform go?”, Big Read, April 29). Reform UK could take enough seats in the Commons to prevent either the Labour or Conservative leader from forming a government on its own. When there is a roughly even three-way division of the vote, the first-past-the-post electoral system becomes more proportional.
MRP analysis of this month’s polls shows an 87 per cent probability no party would come close to having an absolute majority in the House of Commons. Labour would struggle to lead a three-party coalition dependent on the Liberal Democrats and Scottish Nationalists. The Conservatives could only form a government as head of a coalition with Reform, with the choice of prime minister dependent on which party had more MPs.
Professor Richard Rose
Political Commentator, Electoral Calculus, University of Strathclyde, Scotland, UK
