Romania’s controversial decision to cancel an election due to alleged Russian meddling has led to a historic success for the far right in the first round of the presidential rerun.
Ultranationalist George Simion won 41 per cent of the ballots cast on May 4, double as many as his rival Nicuşor Dan, the pro-EU centrist mayor of Bucharest. The two will face each other in a run-off scheduled for May 18.
The repeat election has deepened the country’s political and economic turmoil. Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu has stepped down, the national currency has dropped sharply against the euro and the country has struggled to borrow on international markets.
As Moscow, Washington and EU capitals weigh in on this election and the controversy surrounding it, here is everything you need to know about the people, polls and geopolitics that are shaping Romania’s presidential rerun.
A record result
If Simion, leader of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) who has vowed to “Make Romania Great Again”, wins the second vote on May 18, it will be the first time a far-right party has secured the presidency. Romanian far-right candidates have made it into the run-off before, but have never been ahead by such large margins.
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Simion has been bolstered by the backing of Călin Georgescu, the controversial figure at the centre of November’s election annulment accused of benefiting from Russian interference.
Georgescu won the first round of the vote last year, and the court’s subsequent decision to annul the result and bar Georgescu from running again has done little to counter the rise of the far right. This election, Simion won 3.8mn votes — more than his and Georgescu’s combined result in November.
Simion is closer to victory than his rival Dan, who has a much larger gap to fill and is less popular in rural areas and among Romanians working abroad.
A Verifield poll commissioned by Dan ahead of the run-off showed that Simion was backed by 54.8 per cent of those who expressed a preference. Dan said he hoped to swing some of the undecided voters, as 15 per cent of respondents said they hadn’t made their choice yet and another 8 per cent refused to answer.
The other candidates
Victor Ponta, a former Social Democrat prime minister and self-styled “Maga” candidate, won 13 per cent of the first round votes — which analysts say could transfer to Simion. Ponta has not endorsed any candidate in the run-off.
Dan can count on some voters who cast their ballots for Crin Antonescu, the joint candidate of the coalition government who came in third at 20 per cent of the vote. Two smaller parties in the ruling coalition — the centre-right National Liberal party and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) — have backed Dan.
But the ruling Social Democratic party (PSD), the largest party in government, whose voters are mostly in rural areas and are leaning towards Simion, has not endorsed either candidate.
Another pro-EU centrist whose voters are likely to back Dan is Elena Lasconi. The former leader of Save Romania Union, who faced pressure to withdraw before the May 4 election in favour of Dan, is unlikely to make much of an impact after securing 2.7 per cent of votes in the first round.
Campaign strategies
If elected, Simion has pledged to trigger early parliamentary elections and appoint Georgescu as prime minister. Simion has blamed the fall of the leu on the previous government. He has yet to clarify why on the night of his election win, he flew to Vienna, sending a video message to supporters gathered in Bucharest.
In the days since the first round, Dan has sought to play up his experience as mayor of the Romanian capital and to reassure investors that he is a safe pair of hands needed to restore political and economic stability. He said the country “cannot afford” the chaos a Simion presidency would bring.
Romania’s cancelled election and what it means for Europe
Last year’s decision to cancel the election due to alleged Russian interference has had a profound effect on Romanian politics and landed Bucharest in the crosshairs of both Moscow and the Trump administration.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has taken to ridiculing Romanian officials, while the US has decried the annulment, calling the move an attempt to circumvent democracy and suppress fringe political opinions.
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A win for the Maga-style far right would bolster the ranks of Europe’s Russia-friendly populist leaders who oppose further support to Ukraine and seek to play up their ties with the Trump administration.
The prime ministers of Hungary and Slovakia, Viktor Orbán and Robert Fico, respectively, as well as Alice Weidel, the leader of the German far-right opposition are all seeking to ride the Maga wave while harbouring pro-Russian sympathies.
In recent months, Simion has sought to play down his hostility towards Kyiv, Nato and the EU — as his party is in the same political family with Italy’s rightwing premier, Giorgia Meloni, who is a staunch Ukraine ally.
Dan has described the country’s foreign policy orientation as the “most important thing at stake after this election”, adding that only he would guarantee the country’s continued commitment to the EU and Nato.
